Novartis is expected to overtake Pfizer and become the biggest manufacturer of prescription medicines by 2018, according to new consensus data.

Research by EvaluatePharma estimates Novartis will record sales of more than $50bn in six years’ time, with its eye care business Alcon and generic unit Sandoz driving growth.

But the outlook is not good for US-based companies with only Pfizer remaining in the top five by 2018 and Sanofi, GSK and Roche maintaining a strong presence.

Data found that despite generic competition on Diovan and Glivec and disappointment from key projects such as Gilenya and its new respiratory franchise, Novartis is expected to record annual growth between 2011 and 2018 of 1.2%.

This is in contrast with AstraZeneca whose annual sales are expected to drop from $32.4bn in 2011 to $22.1bn in 2018 representing a negative growth of 5.3%.

Gilead Sciences is expected to experience the biggest increase in annual growth of the top fifteen companies with data showing sales will rise from $8.1bn to $15.7bn at a rate of 9.9% per year.

Novo Nordisk is also forecast to enter the top 15 ranked companies for the first time due to an increasing demand for its diabetes medicines. Annual growth is expected to be 7% until 2018 with sales totalling nearly $20bn.

One of the biggest casualties, data found, will be Eli Lilly. The Indianapolis research-based company currently claims to be the 10th biggest pharmaceutical company in the world. But Lilly fails to make the top 15 companies after research found a drop in sales will see it fall to 17th place by 2018. But researchers did note that Lilly’s Alzheimer’s candidate, solanezumab, could reverse the trend if it successfully enters the lucrative market.

Lilly will be replaced in the list by German healthcare giant Bayer, which also enters the top 15 global companies for the first time, with annual sales of around $16.5bn by 2018 boosted by Xarelto.

Sanofi is expected to overthrow Pfizer’s nine-year reign as the world’s biggest drug maker, according to new research.

The French pharmaceutical company is expected to retain the top spot until at least 2016, with Pfizer falling to third place behind Novartis due to the loss of Lipitor’s US patent protection, according to EvaluatePharma (see figure one).

The report says that Sanofi’s numerous acquisitions over the last decade have contributed largely to the company’s success, gaining $20 billion after it bought out Genzyme.

Sanofi’s mergers over the last decade have contributed a great deal to its current position, starting with its $30 billion deal with Synthélabo in 1999.

It is expected that the company will retain its top position until at least 2016, mainly thanks to sales of enzyme replacement therapies through its acquisition of Genzyme.

Also, the company’s addition of Cerezyme and Myozyme blockbuster drugs will help fill the gap left by Lovenox, Taxotere, and Plavix, which loses US patent protection in 2012.

Pfizer’s $68 billion buyout of Wyeth in 2009 helped fill the gap left by Lipitor, but it will be difficult to replace the drug’s global sales figure of $13.4 billion seen in 2008, which set the record as the biggest selling medicine.

Following its loss of US patent protection in November 2011, Lipitor sales are estimated to shrink to $2 billion by 2016.

However, pipeline products such as rheumatoid arthritis (RA) pills tofacitinib and Eliquis are expected to boost Pfizer’s drug sales after 2016, which will help retain the company’s position in the top-five pharmaceutical companies.

Merck’s four-year outlook is seen as bleak despite its takeover of Schering-Plough for $41 billion in 2009, with only 1% annual sales growth predicted, conceding to European companies GlaxoSmithKline and Roche to overtake the company.

EvaluatePharma predicts that Johnson & Johnson’s recent pipeline successes will benefit the company in the coming years, despite its drugs arm being substantially smaller than the five biggest pharma companies.

It is thought that Novartis will be Sanofi’s closest competition over the next few years, with strong sales growth from Gilenya and Tasigna due to Diovan’s loss of patent protection next year.

Figure 1: